The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

Recency Bias

Recency Bias: The Hidden Trap in Equity Mutual Fund Investing

In the world of investing, our minds often play tricks on us — and one of the most common traps is recency bias. This bias leads investors to make decisions based on recent performance, rather than long-term potential.

Over the last year, many investors have shied away from equity mutual funds due to their short-term underperformance. The disappointment from muted returns has made people believe that mutual funds no longer work. Ironically, the same investors were eager to invest when the markets were rallying and mutual fund returns looked impressive.

This emotional shift is a classic example of recency bias — judging an entire asset class based only on what has happened recently.

However, successful investing is not about reacting to short-term trends, but about staying disciplined through market cycles. Mutual funds are designed to create wealth over time, not overnight. When markets consolidate or move sideways, that’s often when the real long-term opportunities are being built.

Interestingly, what’s happening now in the metals segment mirrors what we saw in equities last year. Gold and Silver have delivered one-sided rallies, attracting massive investor attention.

At Next Portfolio, we have been bullish on Gold since ₹50,000 per 10 grams and Silver since ₹90,000 per kg. Our stance remains positive even today — both still hold potential for long-term investors.

However, every bullish trend comes with phases of consolidation and accumulation. Just as equities are doing right now, metals too may witness a pause or short-term correction before resuming their next leg of growth.

In many ways, metals stand today where equities stood last year — shining bright after a strong rally, while equities quietly build their base for future performance. Markets move in cycles, and patience remains the most powerful investment strategy.

So whether it’s equities, gold, or silver, remember:

Stay focused and  with your asset allocation

Avoid emotional reactions to short-term trends

Keep accumulating systematically

Because in the long run, discipline always outperforms emotion — and consistency beats timing.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor