Game of Oil & Energy

Game of Oil & Energy

Oil and energy remain at the center of global geopolitics. Many believe that control over global energy resources helps maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar and the United States’ position as the world’s leading economic power. Concerns about sustaining this position in the future are often linked to policies such as “America First”.

In recent years we have seen tariff wars and geopolitical developments involving regions like Venezuela and Iran. Some analysts believe that influence over key energy-producing regions is part of a broader strategy. Historically, strong influence over Iran has been considered strategically important because of its position in the global oil and energy system.

Many observers argue that tensions with Iran are not only about support for Israel but also about control and stability of oil supply. The Middle East is indirectly involved in this larger energy equation. Due to these tensions, even the UAE’s perception as a “safe haven” has occasionally faced questions in global discussions.

However, the UAE government continues to act proactively to protect the interests of residents, investors, and tourists, which is commendable.

Equity Markets

The turbulence in global equity markets is not only due to U.S.–Iran tensions. A major factor is rising oil prices and energy-driven inflation, which can continue to create pressure for some time.

Indian Equity Markets

Indian markets have faced pressure since September 2024.

• First phase: Pressure due to global tariff wars and trade tensions.

• Second phase: Current pressure driven by geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran.

These developments may disturb the entire oil and energy ecosystem. Even if geopolitical tensions stabilize in the next 2–4 weeks, disruptions in oil and energy supply may take longer to normalize.

Since India is a major importer of crude oil, higher oil prices can increase inflation and create volatility in equity markets.

Investor Perspective

However, history over the last 15–20 years shows that the biggest beneficiaries of such periods of volatility are disciplined long-term investors. Those who continue investing with patience and consistency often benefit the most once markets stabilize and growth resumes.

Staying focused on long-term fundamentals and maintaining disciplined investment behavior remains the key for successful wealth creation.

Akshay Tiwari
www.nextportfolioindia.com

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

The Changing World Order

🌐 Why the Global Order Feels Like It’s Changing

The world is going through a structural shift — economically, politically, and psychologically. This shift accelerated during and after the leadership style of Donald Trump, but it didn’t start or end with him alone.

🇺🇸 Trump’s “America First” & Global Friction

Trump’s approach emphasized:

1) Trade wars over free trade

2) Sanctions as a primary weapon

3) Withdrawal from global agreements

4) Transactional diplomacy (“What do we gain immediately?”)

To many nations, this looked like:

Power over partnership

This created resentment, not only among rivals but also traditional allies.

🌍 The Rise of a Multipolar World

What we are witnessing now is not anti-USA sentiment alone, but anti-dominance sentiment.

Key trends:

China & Russia pushing alternative power centers

BRICS expanding to reduce dollar 

dependency

Middle powers choosing strategic neutrality

Global South demanding respect, not instructions

The world no longer wants:

❌ One referee

✅ Multiple negotiators

💰 Greed vs Fear vs Survival (Harsh Reality)

Many people label it “greed”, but geopolitically it’s a mix of:

Economic insecurity

Fear of losing dominance

Domestic political pressure

Corporate–military influence

When a superpower feels threatened, it often:

Tightens control

Uses pressure tactics

Frames conflicts as moral battles

This pushes others together, even if they don’t fully trust each other.

⚠️ Is the World Really “Against the USA”?

Not exactly.

More accurate framing:

❌ World vs USA

✅ World vs Unilateral Control

Even US allies now want:

• Autonomy

• Local manufacturing

• Currency independence

• Balanced diplomacy

🔮 What This Means Going Forward

• Global instability will increase before it stabilizes

• Economic blocs will matter more than ideology

• Soft power (trust, culture, fairness) will beat hard power

• The next decade decides who adapts vs who dominates

A humble closing thought 🙏

Empires don’t usually fall because others defeat them

they weaken when they stop listening.

 

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio 

AMFI Registerd MutualnFund Distributor

Why the Last Year Was Flat for Investment Returns

Why the Last Year Was Flat — And Why the Next Few Years Could Look Very Different

Over the last one year plus, the markets have remained unusually flat and quiet. Most asset classes have delivered either negative or single-digit returns, with the notable exception of commodities. This subdued behaviour is not due to any structural weakness in the economy, but largely because of heightened global uncertainty — unpredictable statements from the US leadership, geopolitical tensions, wars, and general instability across regions.

When global sentiment is unclear, markets typically move sideways. That’s exactly what we’ve witnessed. But importantly, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with India’s economic setup. Earnings remain stable, credit markets are healthy, and there are no signs of deep stress. This is why the coming two years could look significantly better than the last. Equity investing has always been a 3–5 year journey, not something to judge by a single year of dullness.

Index Has Risen — But the Rally Is Extremely Narrow

The Nifty index has climbed close to its previous highs, but this gives a misleading impression of broad strength. The index reflects only 50 companies, while mutual funds typically invest across the top 500. And even within the Nifty 50, only a handful of heavyweights have driven most of the recent gains.

The data reinforces this clearly:

Top 6 stocks (like RIL, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank) contributed +930 points to Nifty’s rise.

Next 7 stocks added another +420 points (Infosys, Shriram Finance, HCL, TCS, M&M, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints).

The remaining 26 positive contributors added only +250 points together.

Meanwhile, 11 stocks actually declined, dragging Nifty by –125 points.

This means the bulk of the index movement came from just 13 stocks out of 50 — a classic narrow rally.

This is also why mutual fund NAVs haven’t reflected the same sharp rise:

Broad portfolios can’t outperform when only a few large-caps are running.

A Broad-Based Rally May Be Approaching

History shows that phases dominated by a few heavyweights are usually followed by a broad-based rally, where participation widens across midcaps, smallcaps, and the broader Nifty 200/500.

Right now, the only major overhang is the US tariff and policy uncertainty. Once this lifts, liquidity tends to rotate into broader sectors and mid-tier companies. This is the kind of environment in which mutual fund schemes typically outperform, because their diversified structure benefits when the rally becomes inclusive.

Why you Should Stay Patient

Flat periods like this often form the foundation for the next growth phase. They offer steady consolidation, healthier valuations, and good accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Given today’s backdrop:

The economy is stable.

Corporate earnings are resilient.

The rally has been narrow, not broad.

Tariff clarity could trigger the next leg upward.

Mutual funds benefit most when breadth returns.

There is no strong reason for long-term investors to lose hope. If anything, the market seems to be quietly preparing for a more balanced and stronger rally ahead.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

www.nextportfolioindia.com

Why the Last Year Was Flat for Investment Returns

Why the Last Year Was Flat — And Why the Next Few Years Could Look Very Different

Over the last one year plus, the markets have remained unusually flat and quiet. Most asset classes have delivered either negative or single-digit returns, with the notable exception of commodities. This subdued behaviour is not due to any structural weakness in the economy, but largely because of heightened global uncertainty — unpredictable statements from the US leadership, geopolitical tensions, wars, and general instability across regions.

When global sentiment is unclear, markets typically move sideways. That’s exactly what we’ve witnessed. But importantly, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with India’s economic setup. Earnings remain stable, credit markets are healthy, and there are no signs of deep stress. This is why the coming two years could look significantly better than the last. Equity investing has always been a 3–5 year journey, not something to judge by a single year of dullness.

Index Has Risen — But the Rally Is Extremely Narrow

The Nifty index has climbed close to its previous highs, but this gives a misleading impression of broad strength. The index reflects only 50 companies, while mutual funds typically invest across the top 500. And even within the Nifty 50, only a handful of heavyweights have driven most of the recent gains.

The data reinforces this clearly:

Top 6 stocks (like RIL, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank) contributed +930 points to Nifty’s rise.

Next 7 stocks added another +420 points (Infosys, Shriram Finance, HCL, TCS, M&M, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints).

The remaining 26 positive contributors added only +250 points together.

Meanwhile, 11 stocks actually declined, dragging Nifty by –125 points.

This means the bulk of the index movement came from just 13 stocks out of 50 — a classic narrow rally.

This is also why mutual fund NAVs haven’t reflected the same sharp rise:

Broad portfolios can’t outperform when only a few large-caps are running.

A Broad-Based Rally May Be Approaching

History shows that phases dominated by a few heavyweights are usually followed by a broad-based rally, where participation widens across midcaps, smallcaps, and the broader Nifty 200/500.

Right now, the only major overhang is the US tariff and policy uncertainty. Once this lifts, liquidity tends to rotate into broader sectors and mid-tier companies. This is the kind of environment in which mutual fund schemes typically outperform, because their diversified structure benefits when the rally becomes inclusive.

Why you Should Stay Patient

Flat periods like this often form the foundation for the next growth phase. They offer steady consolidation, healthier valuations, and good accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Given today’s backdrop:

The economy is stable.

Corporate earnings are resilient.

The rally has been narrow, not broad.

Tariff clarity could trigger the next leg upward.

Mutual funds benefit most when breadth returns.

There is no strong reason for long-term investors to lose hope. If anything, the market seems to be quietly preparing for a more balanced and stronger rally ahead.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

www.nextportfolioindia.com

The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

Recency Bias

Recency Bias: The Hidden Trap in Equity Mutual Fund Investing

In the world of investing, our minds often play tricks on us — and one of the most common traps is recency bias. This bias leads investors to make decisions based on recent performance, rather than long-term potential.

Over the last year, many investors have shied away from equity mutual funds due to their short-term underperformance. The disappointment from muted returns has made people believe that mutual funds no longer work. Ironically, the same investors were eager to invest when the markets were rallying and mutual fund returns looked impressive.

This emotional shift is a classic example of recency bias — judging an entire asset class based only on what has happened recently.

However, successful investing is not about reacting to short-term trends, but about staying disciplined through market cycles. Mutual funds are designed to create wealth over time, not overnight. When markets consolidate or move sideways, that’s often when the real long-term opportunities are being built.

Interestingly, what’s happening now in the metals segment mirrors what we saw in equities last year. Gold and Silver have delivered one-sided rallies, attracting massive investor attention.

At Next Portfolio, we have been bullish on Gold since ₹50,000 per 10 grams and Silver since ₹90,000 per kg. Our stance remains positive even today — both still hold potential for long-term investors.

However, every bullish trend comes with phases of consolidation and accumulation. Just as equities are doing right now, metals too may witness a pause or short-term correction before resuming their next leg of growth.

In many ways, metals stand today where equities stood last year — shining bright after a strong rally, while equities quietly build their base for future performance. Markets move in cycles, and patience remains the most powerful investment strategy.

So whether it’s equities, gold, or silver, remember:

Stay focused and  with your asset allocation

Avoid emotional reactions to short-term trends

Keep accumulating systematically

Because in the long run, discipline always outperforms emotion — and consistency beats timing.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor