Why the Last Year Was Flat for Investment Returns

Why the Last Year Was Flat — And Why the Next Few Years Could Look Very Different

Over the last one year plus, the markets have remained unusually flat and quiet. Most asset classes have delivered either negative or single-digit returns, with the notable exception of commodities. This subdued behaviour is not due to any structural weakness in the economy, but largely because of heightened global uncertainty — unpredictable statements from the US leadership, geopolitical tensions, wars, and general instability across regions.

When global sentiment is unclear, markets typically move sideways. That’s exactly what we’ve witnessed. But importantly, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with India’s economic setup. Earnings remain stable, credit markets are healthy, and there are no signs of deep stress. This is why the coming two years could look significantly better than the last. Equity investing has always been a 3–5 year journey, not something to judge by a single year of dullness.

Index Has Risen — But the Rally Is Extremely Narrow

The Nifty index has climbed close to its previous highs, but this gives a misleading impression of broad strength. The index reflects only 50 companies, while mutual funds typically invest across the top 500. And even within the Nifty 50, only a handful of heavyweights have driven most of the recent gains.

The data reinforces this clearly:

Top 6 stocks (like RIL, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank) contributed +930 points to Nifty’s rise.

Next 7 stocks added another +420 points (Infosys, Shriram Finance, HCL, TCS, M&M, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints).

The remaining 26 positive contributors added only +250 points together.

Meanwhile, 11 stocks actually declined, dragging Nifty by –125 points.

This means the bulk of the index movement came from just 13 stocks out of 50 — a classic narrow rally.

This is also why mutual fund NAVs haven’t reflected the same sharp rise:

Broad portfolios can’t outperform when only a few large-caps are running.

A Broad-Based Rally May Be Approaching

History shows that phases dominated by a few heavyweights are usually followed by a broad-based rally, where participation widens across midcaps, smallcaps, and the broader Nifty 200/500.

Right now, the only major overhang is the US tariff and policy uncertainty. Once this lifts, liquidity tends to rotate into broader sectors and mid-tier companies. This is the kind of environment in which mutual fund schemes typically outperform, because their diversified structure benefits when the rally becomes inclusive.

Why you Should Stay Patient

Flat periods like this often form the foundation for the next growth phase. They offer steady consolidation, healthier valuations, and good accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Given today’s backdrop:

The economy is stable.

Corporate earnings are resilient.

The rally has been narrow, not broad.

Tariff clarity could trigger the next leg upward.

Mutual funds benefit most when breadth returns.

There is no strong reason for long-term investors to lose hope. If anything, the market seems to be quietly preparing for a more balanced and stronger rally ahead.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

www.nextportfolioindia.com

Why the Last Year Was Flat for Investment Returns

Why the Last Year Was Flat — And Why the Next Few Years Could Look Very Different

Over the last one year plus, the markets have remained unusually flat and quiet. Most asset classes have delivered either negative or single-digit returns, with the notable exception of commodities. This subdued behaviour is not due to any structural weakness in the economy, but largely because of heightened global uncertainty — unpredictable statements from the US leadership, geopolitical tensions, wars, and general instability across regions.

When global sentiment is unclear, markets typically move sideways. That’s exactly what we’ve witnessed. But importantly, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with India’s economic setup. Earnings remain stable, credit markets are healthy, and there are no signs of deep stress. This is why the coming two years could look significantly better than the last. Equity investing has always been a 3–5 year journey, not something to judge by a single year of dullness.

Index Has Risen — But the Rally Is Extremely Narrow

The Nifty index has climbed close to its previous highs, but this gives a misleading impression of broad strength. The index reflects only 50 companies, while mutual funds typically invest across the top 500. And even within the Nifty 50, only a handful of heavyweights have driven most of the recent gains.

The data reinforces this clearly:

Top 6 stocks (like RIL, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank) contributed +930 points to Nifty’s rise.

Next 7 stocks added another +420 points (Infosys, Shriram Finance, HCL, TCS, M&M, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints).

The remaining 26 positive contributors added only +250 points together.

Meanwhile, 11 stocks actually declined, dragging Nifty by –125 points.

This means the bulk of the index movement came from just 13 stocks out of 50 — a classic narrow rally.

This is also why mutual fund NAVs haven’t reflected the same sharp rise:

Broad portfolios can’t outperform when only a few large-caps are running.

A Broad-Based Rally May Be Approaching

History shows that phases dominated by a few heavyweights are usually followed by a broad-based rally, where participation widens across midcaps, smallcaps, and the broader Nifty 200/500.

Right now, the only major overhang is the US tariff and policy uncertainty. Once this lifts, liquidity tends to rotate into broader sectors and mid-tier companies. This is the kind of environment in which mutual fund schemes typically outperform, because their diversified structure benefits when the rally becomes inclusive.

Why you Should Stay Patient

Flat periods like this often form the foundation for the next growth phase. They offer steady consolidation, healthier valuations, and good accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Given today’s backdrop:

The economy is stable.

Corporate earnings are resilient.

The rally has been narrow, not broad.

Tariff clarity could trigger the next leg upward.

Mutual funds benefit most when breadth returns.

There is no strong reason for long-term investors to lose hope. If anything, the market seems to be quietly preparing for a more balanced and stronger rally ahead.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

www.nextportfolioindia.com

The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

The Gold & Silver Fog: Understanding the Hype and the Hidden Risks

Kya Chal Raha Hai? Fog Chal Raha Hai!

But this time, not the real fog — it’s the Gold and Silver fog that everyone seems to be caught in. 🌫️💰

When Nobody Cared

Let’s rewind a bit.

A year ago, when we were discussing Gold and Silver, hardly anyone was interested. Investors were waiting for a correction or chasing other asset classes that looked more exciting.

At that time, only a few were quietly accumulating — when sentiment was dull, headlines were absent, and emotions were calm.

When Everyone Starts Talking

Fast forward to today.

Everywhere you look — left, right, up, or down — everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They’ve suddenly become the “hot topic” of every portfolio discussion.

But that’s exactly how markets play with human psychology.

When the crowd gets excited, risk quietly increases.

After such a strong, one-sided rally, the risk–reward balance is no longer in your favor. The rally can continue — momentum often does — but if you’re planning fresh allocations, it’s time to think twice.

The Reality of Risk and Reward

Yes, there might still be some upside left in Gold and Silver.

But from these elevated levels, a 10–20% correction is quite possible — and that’s the part most investors tend to ignore when euphoria takes over.

So, if you are willing and emotionally prepared to handle short-term volatility, gradual accumulation can still make sense — but with a long-term horizon (3–4 years) in mind.

Over that period, Gold and Silver continue to hold strong potential for steady and consistent returns, supported by macro factors like:

Persistent inflation pressures

Central bank gold purchases

Global liquidity and currency uncertainty

However, after this kind of massive rally, predicting the next 2–3 months is almost impossible. Short-term moves may not reflect fundamentals — only momentum and sentiment.

The Bottom Line

If you missed the rally, don’t chase it now.

If you already hold, review your exposure and manage your risk.

And if you’re looking for long-term value, be patient — good entries come when excitement fades, not when everyone’s talking about it.

Because in investing, one rule never changes:

📈 Opportunities are born in silence — not in noise.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

Recency Bias

Recency Bias: The Hidden Trap in Equity Mutual Fund Investing

In the world of investing, our minds often play tricks on us — and one of the most common traps is recency bias. This bias leads investors to make decisions based on recent performance, rather than long-term potential.

Over the last year, many investors have shied away from equity mutual funds due to their short-term underperformance. The disappointment from muted returns has made people believe that mutual funds no longer work. Ironically, the same investors were eager to invest when the markets were rallying and mutual fund returns looked impressive.

This emotional shift is a classic example of recency bias — judging an entire asset class based only on what has happened recently.

However, successful investing is not about reacting to short-term trends, but about staying disciplined through market cycles. Mutual funds are designed to create wealth over time, not overnight. When markets consolidate or move sideways, that’s often when the real long-term opportunities are being built.

Interestingly, what’s happening now in the metals segment mirrors what we saw in equities last year. Gold and Silver have delivered one-sided rallies, attracting massive investor attention.

At Next Portfolio, we have been bullish on Gold since ₹50,000 per 10 grams and Silver since ₹90,000 per kg. Our stance remains positive even today — both still hold potential for long-term investors.

However, every bullish trend comes with phases of consolidation and accumulation. Just as equities are doing right now, metals too may witness a pause or short-term correction before resuming their next leg of growth.

In many ways, metals stand today where equities stood last year — shining bright after a strong rally, while equities quietly build their base for future performance. Markets move in cycles, and patience remains the most powerful investment strategy.

So whether it’s equities, gold, or silver, remember:

Stay focused and  with your asset allocation

Avoid emotional reactions to short-term trends

Keep accumulating systematically

Because in the long run, discipline always outperforms emotion — and consistency beats timing.

Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

🌍 Nothing is Permanent in Today’s Geopolitics

🌎 H-1B Visa Registration Fee Hike, What It Means for NRIs

The recent hike in H-1B visa registration fees by the US government highlights a clear message: the US no longer wants large inflows of visa applicants, but is focusing on quality over quantity.

The earlier era, when many Indians would go to the US on an H-1B visa and wait 10–15 years for a Green Card, is coming to an end. With rising political shifts and increasing uncertainty under Mr. Trump’s leadership, long-term residency in the US is no longer guaranteed or even attractive for many.

🔎 What’s Changing?

Visa costs rising → Filtering out applications, reducing inflows.

Green Card backlog → Long wait times remain, with little hope of faster approvals.

Uncertainty in policies → Rules can change anytime, creating insecurity for overseas residents.

Vote bank politics → Immigration has become a tool for elections, not a stable long-term policy.

💡 Impact on Overseas Residents

Even those settled for decades in the US are realizing that the dream of permanent residency is more fragile than before.

The feeling of “desperation” for a Green Card is reducing, as the risks and costs are rising.

Many NRIs are now questioning: “Is it worth waiting endlessly in an uncertain system?”

📈 What NRIs Should Do

Don’t put all eggs in one basket: Depending only on the US for career, residency, and wealth can be risky.

Create an alternative base: Consider India or other countries that welcome skilled professionals and investors.

Diversify investments: Spread wealth across different countries, asset classes (equity, debt, real estate, global funds).

Protect your Plan B: Be ready for any sudden changes in residency or earning opportunities.

✅ Strategic Takeaway

The world has changed. The US no longer guarantees long-term stability for overseas residents. This is the right time for NRIs to rethink, rebalance, and diversify — both in life planning and financial investments.

📌 Bottom Line: A secure future is built on multiple pillars — not just one country, one residency, or one asset class.

👤 Akshay Tiwari

Next Portfolio

🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

📜 AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor

Portfolio Diversification is like Cricket Team

Why Diversification Is the True Strength of Your Portfolio

When investors look at their portfolio, a common question arises:

“This scheme is doing very well, but why are the other ones not performing the same way?”

It’s a fair question. But here’s the truth: a strong portfolio is not built for every scheme to perform equally at the same time. It is built for balance, stability, and long-term wealth creation.

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The Cricket Team Analogy

Think of your portfolio like a cricket team.

• You don’t expect every player to score a century in every match.

• The opener may take big risks to score quickly, while the middle-order batsman plays carefully to build stability.

• The bowler doesn’t score runs at all—but is absolutely crucial for winning matches.

• The wicketkeeper may not hit big shots, but his consistency and safe hands are essential for the team’s success.

And remember—even the best players fail sometimes. Virat Kohli might get out for zero in a match or go through a rough patch, but that doesn’t mean he’s not one of the greatest players. Similarly, if one scheme underperforms in a certain period, it doesn’t mean it has lost its value.

A cricket team wins because of collective performance, not because of one star. In the same way, your portfolio succeeds when all schemes work together in their own roles.

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Why Every Scheme Doesn’t Perform the Same

Each mutual fund or investment scheme follows a different strategy. Its performance depends on many factors, such as:

• Market conditions – Different sectors shine at different times.

• Sector allocation – IT may perform well during a technology boom, while banking may shine when interest rates are favorable.

• Stock allocation – A few chosen stocks can significantly impact performance.

• Risk level – Some funds take higher risks for higher returns, while others focus on steady, calculated growth.

This is why one scheme may deliver extraordinary returns in a given year while others appear average. The high-performing scheme may simply be positioned in the right sector at the right time—or it may be taking greater risks. The others are not “bad performers”; they are playing their roles to provide stability and balance.

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The Real Purpose of Diversification

Diversification is like insurance for your investments.

• If you only put money into the top-performing scheme, you might enjoy big gains today—but also face high risks tomorrow if conditions change.

• By spreading your investments across different schemes, sectors, and strategies, you protect yourself from sharp downturns.

• Some schemes will give growth, others will give stability, and some will act as a cushion during tough market phases.

This mix is what allows your wealth to grow steadily and sustainably over time.

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The Big Picture

When you evaluate your investments, don’t judge them scheme by scheme. Instead, look at your portfolio as a whole.

At any point in time, a few schemes will lead, while others will quietly protect your capital. Together, they ensure that your portfolio is well-balanced, resilient, and aligned with your long-term goals.

Just like a cricket team doesn’t depend on one player to win every match, your portfolio doesn’t rely on one scheme. Diversification is the real strength behind consistent wealth creation.

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Akshay Tiwari
Next Portfolio
🌐 www.nextportfolioindia.com

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor